Hi Everyone - Thanks so much for reading. I’ve really enjoyed making this preseason content. I’ll be working through what to share on a weekly basis going forward, but here is my final list. Any feedback is very much appreciated.
It’s time for the final list! A couple things to keep in mind
If you’re in a smaller league and/or are playing total points, I’d lean into the upside/risky picks a bit more.
If you’re in a larger league and/or head to head, I’d focus slightly more on the safer picks that are likely to guarantee you points every week.
I’ve called out my personal Key Targets. To me, these are the highest potential value in relation to where they are being drafted.
The Cream of the Crop - My current top 10 in order:
Haaland, Salah, Palmer, Isak, Saka, Watkins, Bowen, Fernandes (top 8)
#9 - Cody Gakpo (Key Target): You should be able to get him later (picks 15-30) and I know I’m way higher on him than everyone else, but imo this is the biggest value opportunity in the draft.The only way this goes wrong is if Liverpool buy another winger, or an injury. They don’t want to block Rio Ngomoah’s pathway, so I don’t believe they will buy one. If he gets 30+ starts, he’ll score 15+ goals.
#10: I don’t really have a 10. I think the drop-off is significant. To me, you go with whichever forward you like of the following: Mateta, Gyokeres, Evanilson, Strand Larson, Wissa (if future is sorted).
Riskier/Upside option at #10: Wirtz: I usually stay away from players new to the premier league. This is more of a pick because I like him more than the other options ranked here like Mbuemo, Foden, Marmoush, Odegaard, Ekitike, Cuhna. He could hit big.
Elite Goalies:
Raya and Pickford (Pick 50+:) Key Targets: I laid out the case in my previous post, but I would rather take an elite GK around pick 50, and then a “new middle class midfielder” (say Elliot Anderson) at pick 90, than someone like Mitoma at 50 and another GK at 90.
Elite Defenders:
Virgil van Dijk(Pick 25+) Key Target: He would have been 2nd to Milenkovic under the new scoring, but I think Forrest will fall off with having Europe this season. I also think there’s more goals to come from VvD with Wirtz delivering set pieces.
Gabriel (Pick 35): A bit more risky in my opinion because of the injury history. I’d probably have him as more of a pick 35+. A real goal threat, and would have had 123 points in 28 starts, which would be over 165 points if he hadn’t missed time.
Steady Defenders: Should play every match, and all are set to benefit from defensive contributions.(Getting one or two of these guys is a key target for me)
Saliba, Tarkowski, Braithwaite (Pick 50+),
Collins, Konate (Pick 65+)
Wann Bissaka, Lacroix, Milenkovic, Murillo (Pick 80+): I’m lower on Forrest this year because they have to deal with Europe
Risky, Big Upside Defenders
Ait Nouri (Pick 45+): Could go nuclear, but does have Afcon and pep-roulette as negatives. One of the bigger bets you can make this year
Cucerella (Pick 50+): Could potentially go in the steady defenders category, but I’m putting him here because I find Chelsea very hard to predict.
Frimpong (Pick 50+): I had originally thought Bradley would start, but he’s injured. There’s also a thought that he will deputize for Salah during Afcon
Porro (Pick 65+): Gets attacking returns and defensive contributions. Just needs the Spurs defense to improve a tiny bit…but it is Spurs, so who knows
Nunes (Pick 70+): Honestly as much upside as Ait Nouri if he claims right back, but will be available later in the draft. Didn’t start the last friendly, but I’d take a punt on him in smaller leagues especially. EDIT: I’m making Nunes a Key target for me.
Timber (Pick 75+): I think he will start at right back, and has shown some attacking threat
Dorgu/Maguire (Pick 95+): Looks to have the left wing back and center back spots locked. Who knows how united’s defense will be
Kayode (Pick 120+): Purely eye test from last year. He looks really good going forward
Diouf (Pick 120+): Looks good in preseason for west ham and seems locked as the lwb in a back 5. Unfortunately will be in Afcon.
Midfielders: There are so, so many midfielders. Here’s the ones that stand out to me in terms of value, relative to draft position. I don’t see much difference between some of these guys, and the Semenyo/Odegaard/Eze’s of the world.
Schade (Pick 60+): I think there’s a lot of upside here, but he hasn’t played in preseason (slight injury) and that does concern me a little bit.
Sarr (Pick 70+): If you like Eze, take Sarr 50 picks later.
Georgino/Minteh (Pick 75+) Key Targets: I really like both of these guys and think they can outscore Mitoma, who will get picked higher. I think Georgino is slightly more upside, but more risk as well.
Damsgaard (Pick 75+ ) Key Target: Great player with more to offer going forward, and will likely benefit from defensive contributions
Ndaiye (pick 85+): Really good player and might benefit from defensive contributions. EDIT: With Grealish coming in, Mcneil fit, there are some potential rotation issues.
Elliott Anderson: (Pick 95+) Key Target: Benefits massively from defensive contributions, and I think theres more attacking returns in his future
Malen (Pick 100+): If he’s a regular starter for Villa he could really put up a haul. Worth a punt late round
Tonali (Pick 100+): If you like Bruno G, take Tonali 40-50 picks later
Emile Smith Rowe (Pick 100+): He almost feels like a second season player after sitting on the bench at Arsenal for so long. This is a bit of a flyer, but he started last season well. The question is whether he can put a full season together
Pacqueta (Pick 100+): The betting case is gone, and this guy is genuinely world-class when on form. He’s worth a punt.
Tielemans (Pick 100+): Will be helped by DC, and can chip in with an attacking return.
Forwards - Steady
I’ve touched on most of the forwards I like earlier (Haaland, Isak, Watkins, Bowen, Mateta, Evanilson, Strand Larsen). Forward target pick numbers will vastly depend on your league size and if there’s a run on them. Here’s just a couple more that should be steady
Jimenez, Wood
Forwards - Risky Upside
Fulkrug (Pick 60+): Has looked really good in pre-season. He can score when healthy, but has sadly been injured too much. A key target if you’re unhappy with your forwards after the first 30-40 picks.
Igor Thiago (Pick 80+): If Wissa leaves, this could be a really strong pick
Delap/Joao Pedro (Pick - use your own judgement): Wish I knew what to say here, but either one of them could hit 15-20 goals if they are the first choice 9 for the season. I just have no clue who will be the first choice 9. I’d steer clear unless you can get one of them after pick 40/50 honestly. EDIT: With JP starting the last friendly, I think you can take a risk on him a bit earlier. I do love the upside.
Nicholas Jackson (Pick Late): If you need a 3rd forward late in the draft, you can take a punt here. If he ends up moving to Newcastle, it could be a great pick.
Marc Giui: Bit of a punt, but has looked promising when he plays. Will be tough sledding at Sunderland, but who knows.
Wissa (Pick - use your judgement): He will likely be a starter, so if he’s falling into round 5 or 6, it could be worth a punt.
Good luck and happy drafting!!
Great work mate. Any chance of setting up a league with some of your followers? Imagine it’d pretty competitive?
So good cheers mate